Soccer predictions today, Thursday 22 October

SAST	Match	Tip	Chance	Odds
Europa League
18:45	Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
18:45	Dinamo ZagrebNEC Nijmegen
18:45	FerencvarosTorreense
18:45	JuventusStade Rennais
18:45	Lech PoznanSunderland
18:45	OFI CreteLeverkusen
18:45	SK Sturm GrazMarseille
18:45	Union St.-GilloiseHapoel Be'er
21:00	BournemouthMilan
21:00	BesiktasCrystal Palace
21:00	CelticCelta Vigo
21:00	Jagiellonia BialystokAnderlecht
21:00	LillestromReal Sociedad
21:00	NK CeljeRB Salzburg
21:00	OlympiacosSparta Prague
21:00	Omonia NicosiaBenfica
21:00	TSG HoffenheimLyon
21:00	Viktoria PlzenLevski Sofia

PSL predictions today and the European evening

The sheet opens with the PSL whenever the Betway Premiership plays that day, then moves on to the Premier League, the Champions League and the rest of Europe. Each competition sits in its own block with the number of matches beside the name.

PSL kick-offs need no conversion: a 15:30 or 19:30 start on the sheet is the time at the stadium. European times are converted to SAST. A 15:00 Saturday kick-off in England shows as 17:00 in the northern winter and 16:00 between the last Sundays of March and October.

Midweek nights bring the Champions League at 21:00 Central European Time, which is 22:00 SAST in winter and 21:00 in summer. A busy Tuesday therefore runs from a 19:30 PSL fixture to a late European finish around midnight.

Fixtures with no tip yet show the day their page opens, so the full programme is visible before any pick is written.

How each tip on the sheet is worked out

Every tip draws on two inputs: the goals each team has scored and let in this season, and Paripesa’s prices for the match. A scoring model converts those rates into an expected goals figure per side.

The prices lose their bookmaker margin and join the model, which leans mostly on the market. Together they produce home, draw and away chances, plus the over 2.5 and BTTS chances.

A side at 50% or higher gets a straight win as the main tip. Under that line the call switches to a double chance, 1X or X2, so the draw is covered too. Strong means 65% or higher, Fair covers 55% up to 64%, and Lean is the rest.

Line-ups and team news come after the model has run, so a last look at the match page an hour before kick-off is worth it.

Sure wins today: what the chance column tells you

A sure win would need a 100% chance, and no football match reaches that. The highest main tips on a normal day sit between 70% and 80%, and even a 75% tip loses one time in four.

The chance column is the honest version of a sure win. A pick at 72% has won about seven times in ten across many matches like it, and the remaining three end in a draw or an upset.

The three strongest tips of the day sit on the podium above the sheet. They are the safest calls available, yet a weekend with 20 picks at 70% still averages six losers. Sites that sell fixed or guaranteed matches promise something no model and no tipster can deliver.

Treat a high percentage as a better chance, and size the stake to the risk that remains.

Comparing a tip with the bookmaker odds

Comparing a tip with the bookmaker odds takes one sum: 100 divided by the decimal price. A price of 1.80 stands for 55.6%, 2.00 for 50% and 2.50 for 40%.

When the model gives that outcome 60% at a price of 1.80, the bookmaker is paying above the risk. Repeat that edge over a season and a hit rate becomes a profit.

A model figure under the implied chance still wins sometimes, but the price is then too short. At 1.50, a R100 bet returns R150, so it needs two wins from every three bets to break even.

The match page lines up the model figure, the price and the implied chance for each of the three tips.

Building a multi from today’s tips

Every leg added to a multi multiplies both the odds and the risk. Three legs at 60% each come in together about 22% of the time: 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = 0.216.

A slip of two or three Strong tips holds up better than one with six Lean legs, and one leg priced too short weakens the whole slip. The calculator works out total odds and the payout for any stake.

For a ready-made slip, the 2 odds daily page builds two or three legs near total odds of 2.00 from the strongest tips of the day.

Soccer predictions today and tomorrow

Soccer predictions today cover the current SAST day from midnight to midnight. Tomorrow’s list fills as its match pages are written, about a day and a half before each kick-off.

On Friday the soccer predictions tomorrow page already holds most of Saturday’s PSL and Premier League fixtures. The weekend page sets Saturday and Sunday side by side, and the results page shows how the last 7 and 30 days went.

Betting the same amount on every tip stops one poor evening from wiping out the week’s budget. Kick-off times on both sheets run on SAST, so a 21:00 game in Spain shows as 21:00 or 22:00 here, depending on the season in Europe.